Abstract:Since there widely existing random uncertainty in engineering structure, an efficient dynamic reliability analysis method which simultaneously considers the uncertainties of dynamic excitation load and material properties parameters is proposed. The Kriging surrogate model between the uncertainty material properties parameters and conditional dynamic reliability is firstly constructed, and then the analytical expression of the final dynamic reliability is derived based on the constructed surrogate model. Simultaneously, a new learning function for constructing the adaptive Kriging surrogate is proposed. The proposed method for estimating the dynamic reliability can not only avoid the error caused by numerical integration with surrogate model, but also provide accurate solution of dynamic reliability by using the computational costs as little as possible. The accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method is demonstrated by employing the dynamic reliability analysis of ceramic matrix composites aircraft skin frame structure under the random uncertainties of dynamic excitation load and material properties parameters.