Governed by: Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of the People's Republic of China
Sponsored by: Northwestern Polytechnical University  Chinese Society Aeronautics and Astronautics
Address: Aviation Building,Youyi Campus, Northwestern Polytechnical University
Study on airport performance forecast-A case of 10 Asian hub airports
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1.Binzhou University;2.Northwestern Polytechnical University

Clc Number:

V351

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    Abstract:

    Improving future performance is the key to airport sustainable development. Accurate forecast is the basis for improving performance. Considering the impact of COVID-19, a combination method with quantitative and qualitative analysis are used to forecast the performance of 10 Asian hub airports during 14th 5-Year, and puts forward strategic suggestions for airport sustainable development. It is found that grey model quantitative analysis method is more suitable to forecast airport performance than ARIMA; Comparing the predicted values of the eight airports with the actual statistical values from 2016 to 2019 (Pudong and Bao'an airports from 2017 to 2020), it is found that all the forecast errors are less than 4%, and the forecast results are good; Baiyun Airport passenger throughput will continue to maintain the first in Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao bay area; In 2025, Incheon Airport will become the first Asian passenger transport hub for the first time; Hong Kong Airport will maintain the first Asian cargo throughput; Incheon Airport will become the first financial performance Asian airport; In 2024, Baiyun Airport will become the first financial performance airport in mainland China. It is suggested that mainland Chinese airports should attach importance to the innovation of nonaeronautical services, enhance airport financial performance, develop airport economy and promote sustainable development.

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Wang Zhan Wei, Zhao Ming Ming, Li Hua Xing. Study on airport performance forecast-A case of 10 Asian hub airports[J]. Advances in Aeronautical Science and Engineering,2021,12(4):90-98

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History
  • Received:April 19,2021
  • Revised:July 04,2021
  • Adopted:July 11,2021
  • Online: August 26,2021
  • Published: